This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after market resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 8:30:30 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
12%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market prices a 11.5% probability that the highest temperature in Mexico City on June 27, 2026, will be exactly 22°C. Historical climatological data and seasonal trends suggest this is a low-probability outcome.
The bull case assumes an unusual weather pattern, such as a warm air mass from the Gulf of Mexico or a strong high-pressure system, could push temperatures to 22°C. Above-average solar radiation or reduced cloud cover may also contribute to this outcome.
The bear case reflects Mexico City's typical June climate, where average high temperatures range between 24-26°C, making 22°C unusually cool. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cold air intrusions from the north could suppress temperatures below the historical average.
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Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 11.5% while ORYN AI estimates 11.5%.
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