Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data revisions from Wunderground after initial publication
Calibrated 100% · raw 350% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 6:30:55 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
30%
ORYN Consensus
26%
Signal Score
-3.5
Opportunity
2.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,468,983
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -350.0¢
Entry: 26-32
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
16 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 26% probability that Manila will record a high temperature of 31°C on July 1, 2026, based on historical temperature trends and climate patterns. The forecast aligns with typical seasonal temperatures for the region but carries inherent uncertainty due to weather variability.
Manila could reach 31°C if a strong high-pressure system or heatwave persists, amplified by urban heat island effects and delayed monsoon onset. Above-average global temperatures in 2025-26 may also increase the likelihood of extreme heat days.
Cooler-than-expected temperatures may occur if the southwest monsoon (Habagat) arrives early or if tropical cyclones disrupt the region, lowering peak daily highs. La Niña conditions, if developing, could moderate temperatures below historical averages.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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