This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after market resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:15:15 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
55%
ORYN Consensus
55%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market suggests a slight majority (54.5%) believe Madrid will exceed 35°C on June 27, 2026, based on historical temperature trends and early seasonal forecasts. Resolution hinges on precise daily data from Wunderground for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station.
Madrid frequently exceeds 35°C in late June due to climate warming trends, with recent years showing earlier and more intense heatwaves. The 54.5% probability aligns with a warming Iberian Peninsula, where June records are increasingly broken.
Late June historically sees Madrid’s peak temperatures averaging around 30-32°C, with 35°C being an outlier. The market’s probability may overestimate heat risk if a cooler-than-normal weather pattern emerges in the final forecast revisions.
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Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 54.5% while ORYN AI estimates 54.5%.
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