Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after market resolution
AI updated 6/29/2026, 12:45:23 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,542,595
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -5.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Lucknow reaching 40°C on June 29, 2026, stands at 0.30%, indicating extremely low market confidence in this outcome. Historical climate data and seasonal trends strongly suggest this temperature is unlikely for late June.
A rare extreme heat event could push temperatures to 40°C, driven by prolonged pre-monsoon heatwaves, delayed monsoon onset, or localized urban heat island effects. Unusual atmospheric patterns, such as strong high-pressure systems or dry northerly winds, could temporarily elevate temperatures beyond seasonal norms.
Climatologically, Lucknow’s average high for late June is around 35-37°C, with extreme peaks historically rare. Monsoon rains typically arrive by mid-June, reducing peak temperatures through increased humidity and cloud cover. Persistent cloud cover or unseasonal rainfall would further suppress temperatures below 40°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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