Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution cutoff
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 6:45:21 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
27%
ORYN Consensus
25%
Signal Score
-2.0
Opportunity
1.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -200.0¢
Entry: 24-30
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 27% probability that Lucknow's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 39°C. This is below the historical average peak for late June, suggesting skepticism about extreme heat in the region.
If monsoon onset is delayed or weak, Lucknow could experience prolonged pre-monsoon heat, pushing temperatures toward 39°C. Climate trends indicate increasing heatwave frequency, supporting a potential spike.
Early monsoon rains or cloud cover could suppress peak temperatures below 39°C. Historical data shows Lucknow's late June averages around 35-37°C, making 39°C less likely without exceptional conditions.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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