Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: climate_data_revision_lag
AI updated 7/2/2026, 8:45:55 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 10.0¢
Entry: 0-6
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
1
Price history
21 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a low probability (2.75%) that Lucknow's highest temperature on July 4, 2026, will reach exactly 33°C. Historical climatology and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is unlikely, with temperatures typically peaking lower in early July.
A bullish outcome (33°C) could occur if Lucknow experiences an unusual heatwave due to a strong high-pressure system, delayed monsoon onset, or localized urban heat island effects. Unseasonably warm air masses from western India or Pakistan could also drive temperatures upward.
A bearish outcome (below 33°C) is more probable given Lucknow's historical July climate, where average highs range between 30-32°C. Monsoon-related cloud cover and rainfall often suppress peak temperatures, making 33°C an outlier.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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