Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to historical temperature data post-resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 10:30:18 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
33%
ORYN Consensus
34%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,512,558
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 30-36
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a 32.50% probability that Los Angeles' highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will fall within the 72-73°F range. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest moderate likelihood, but uncertainty remains due to variability in early summer weather patterns.
A bullish scenario favors temperatures within 72-73°F, supported by typical early summer conditions in Los Angeles, where daily highs often range between 70-75°F. Persistent marine layer influence or unexpected cloud cover could suppress temperatures, increasing the likelihood of resolution within the target range.
A bearish scenario discounts the 72-73°F range, citing potential heatwaves or Santa Ana winds pushing temperatures above 73°F. Unseasonably warm conditions or prolonged high-pressure systems could skew the outcome toward higher readings, reducing the probability of a 72-73°F peak.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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