Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions to historical temperature records post-resolution
AI updated 6/28/2026, 7:45:41 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.8
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,015,055
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 80.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a very low (0.25%) probability that London's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach 31°C or higher, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. This aligns with London's typical summer temperatures, which rarely exceed 31°C in late June.
A bullish outcome could occur if an exceptional heatwave develops in late June 2026, driven by persistent high-pressure systems or Saharan air masses pushing temperatures above the historical norm. Climate change trends may slightly increase the likelihood of extreme heat events in the UK.
The bear case reflects London's historical climate patterns, where late June temperatures typically range between 18-25°C, with 31°C+ events being rare. Persistent cloud cover, Atlantic low-pressure systems, or maritime influences would suppress temperatures below the threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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