Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: revisions_to_historical_weather_data
AI updated 6/27/2026, 7:15:20 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
35%
ORYN Consensus
34%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 31-38
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 33.5% probability that London's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 25°C, based on historical climate data and current forecasting models. The resolution hinges on precise temperature records from London City Airport Station, with no prior data available for validation.
A bullish scenario would see London experiencing an unseasonably warm weather pattern, driven by high-pressure systems or tropical air masses pushing temperatures to 25°C. Climate trends show increasing summer temperatures in the UK, with June 2026 potentially aligning with this warming trend, especially if El Niño conditions persist.
A bearish outcome would reflect typical June weather in London, where temperatures rarely exceed 24°C without extreme heatwaves. Persistent cloud cover, Atlantic low-pressure systems, or cooler-than-average ocean temperatures could suppress daytime highs below the 25°C threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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