Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to historical temperature data by Wunderground
AI updated 7/2/2026, 5:30:29 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 37% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
14%
ORYN Consensus
14%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,698,130
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 11-17
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a 14% probability that London's highest temperature on July 4, 2026, will reach 29°C, based on historical climate data and current forecasting models. This low probability reflects the rarity of such high temperatures in London during early July, historically averaging around 22-23°C.
A bullish scenario could materialize if an unprecedented heatwave affects the UK in early July 2026, driven by strong high-pressure systems, Saharan air intrusions, or climate change-induced temperature anomalies. Unusually warm Atlantic currents or localized urban heat island effects in London could also push temperatures to 29°C.
A bearish outcome is more likely given historical averages; London's July 4th high temperatures rarely exceed 26°C, with 29°C occurring in only ~5% of years since 1970. Persistent cloud cover, Atlantic low-pressure systems, or cooler-than-average weather patterns would suppress temperatures below 29°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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