Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data_revision_risk_from_wunderground
AI updated 6/30/2026, 5:30:28 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 44% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,803,418
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -5.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts an extremely low probability (0.65%) that London's highest temperature on July 2, 2026, will be 20°C or below, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends for London in early July. The resolution hinges on precise temperature records from the London City Airport Station.
A bullish outcome could occur if an unexpected cold snap or unusual weather pattern affects London in early July 2026, such as a polar air mass or prolonged cloud cover reducing daytime heating. Historical outliers, though rare, are not impossible, especially if climate anomalies like La Niña persist.
The bearish outcome is highly unlikely given London's typical early July climate, where temperatures frequently exceed 20°C due to seasonal warming trends and urban heat island effects. Long-term averages suggest a near-certainty of temperatures above this threshold, with only 1-2% historical probability of 20°C or below.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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