Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data revisions before resolution
AI updated 6/26/2026, 11:15:26 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Karachi's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, shows a very low probability (0.55%) of reaching 32°C, indicating strong skepticism about extreme heat on that date. Historical climate data for Karachi in late June suggests temperatures typically range between 28°C and 32°C, but extreme outliers are rare.
Karachi could hit 32°C if a strong heatwave develops due to delayed monsoon onset or persistent high-pressure systems over South Asia. Unusual atmospheric conditions, such as a persistent westerly wind pattern or reduced cloud cover, could push temperatures to the upper range of historical averages.
The probability remains low due to Karachi's coastal climate, which moderates extreme heat, and the likelihood of monsoon rains arriving by late June. Additionally, global climate trends suggest a slight cooling effect in the region, reducing the chance of reaching 32°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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