This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Key risk: Forecast model uncertainty for 1+ year horizons
AI updated 6/26/2026, 2:35:11 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market for Jinan's highest temperature on May 20, 2026, is evenly split at 50%, indicating high uncertainty due to the long forecast horizon and seasonal variability. Historical temperature trends for Jinan in late May suggest a range of 15-25°C, but precise forecasting remains challenging.
A bullish outcome (temperature ≥17°C) is supported by Jinan's late-May climate normals (1991-2020), where the average daily high is ~24.5°C, with 90% of years exceeding 17°C. Early seasonal warming trends or heatwave events could push temperatures above this threshold.
A bearish outcome (temperature <17°C) could occur due to unseasonable cold snaps, monsoon delays, or extreme weather events disrupting typical warming patterns. Jinan's lower 10th percentile for late May is ~15°C, making sub-17°C outcomes plausible but less likely.
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Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 17°C on May 20? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 50% while ORYN AI estimates 50%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
