This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions (NOAA may adjust initial measurements)
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:32:45 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market for Istanbul's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, currently prices in a low probability (3.60%) that the NOAA-measured peak will reach 33°C. Historical climatology and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is unlikely but not impossible.
A heatwave or unusual weather pattern could push temperatures to 33°C, as Istanbul occasionally experiences late June heat spikes. Persistent high-pressure systems or Saharan air intrusions could elevate temperatures beyond seasonal norms.
June temperatures in Istanbul typically average 25-28°C, with 33°C being an outlier. Cloud cover, coastal breezes, or unseasonal rainfall could suppress peak temperatures below 33°C. Long-term climate trends may also reduce the likelihood of extreme heat events.
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Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 4.1% while ORYN AI estimates 3.6%.
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