Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions prior to resolution deadline (NOAA updates)
Calibrated 100% · raw 135% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:31:52 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.4
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,468,983
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 135.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
19 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a low probability (1.9%) that Istanbul's highest temperature on July 1, 2026, will be 23°C or below, based on historical NOAA data and seasonal trends. This reflects typical July temperatures in the region, which rarely fall below 23°C.
A rare weather anomaly, such as an unexpected cold front or unseasonable rainfall, could push daily highs below 23°C. Historical outliers (e.g., 2021's cooler-than-average July) provide a slim but plausible scenario for this outcome.
Standard July climatology in Istanbul, where average highs range from 28-31°C, makes this outcome highly improbable. Persistent heatwaves or urban warming trends further reduce the likelihood of temperatures dipping to 23°C or lower.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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