Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Accuracy of historical temperature data revisions
Calibrated 100% · raw 400% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:15:23 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
51%
ORYN Consensus
47%
Signal Score
-4.0
Opportunity
2.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,311,078
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -400.0¢
Entry: 48-54
—
Resolution
9h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
17 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 46.5% probability that the highest temperature in Houston on June 29, 2026, will fall within the 94-95°F range. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest near-equal likelihood for temperatures slightly above or below this range.
A high of 94-95°F aligns with typical late June temperatures in Houston, which often see daily highs in the low-to-mid 90s°F. Persistent high pressure or delayed seasonal cooling could push temperatures to the upper end of the range.
Cooler-than-average conditions, increased cloud cover, or rainfall could suppress temperatures below 94°F. La Niña or other climate patterns might reduce heat intensity, favoring a lower resolution.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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