Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate data revisions (post-resolution adjustments)
AI updated 7/2/2026, 2:31:14 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 38% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,656,904
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -5.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 1.05% chance that Houston's highest temperature on July 3, 2026, will fall within the 84-85°F range at Hobby Airport. Historical July 3 temperature data shows this range is rare, with typical highs clustering around 90-95°F.
A bullish scenario could materialize if unexpected weather patterns (e.g., late-season cold front, persistent cloud cover, or high humidity reducing solar heating) suppress daytime temperatures. La Niña-like conditions in the Pacific might also contribute to cooler-than-average conditions in the Gulf Coast region during early July.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Houston's historical climate trends. July is peak summer, with highs routinely exceeding 90°F. Heat dome events or strong high-pressure systems could push temperatures well above the 84-85°F range, making this outcome improbable.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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