Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revision delays from the Hong Kong Observatory
AI updated 6/29/2026, 8:00:31 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,489,259
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Hong Kong's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, currently reflects an extremely low probability (0.20%) that the temperature will be 26°C or below. Historical climate data and seasonal trends strongly favor higher temperatures during this period.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unusual cold snap or persistent cloud cover suppresses temperatures, though this is statistically unlikely given Hong Kong's typical June climate. Anomalous weather patterns, such as a delayed monsoon onset or unusual atmospheric conditions, might marginally increase this probability.
The bear case aligns with historical norms, where June temperatures in Hong Kong frequently exceed 26°C due to seasonal heat and humidity. Climate change trends further suggest a higher baseline temperature, making sub-26°C readings improbable without extraordinary circumstances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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