This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Key risk: Data revision delays from the Hong Kong Observatory
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:15:52 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a very low probability (1.05%) that the highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 29, 2026, will reach 27°C. Historical climate data suggests this is an outlier given regional temperature trends.
Unusual weather patterns, such as a prolonged heatwave or a delayed monsoon season, could push temperatures to 27°C. Climate anomalies or urban heat island effects in Hong Kong might also contribute to higher-than-expected readings.
June is typically not a peak heat month in Hong Kong, with average highs around 31-32°C but not consistently reaching 27°C as a daily maximum. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cooler-than-average conditions would make 27°C unlikely.
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Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.1% while ORYN AI estimates 1.1%.
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