Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to initial temperature measurements by the Hong Kong Observatory
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:30:20 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
17%
ORYN Consensus
17%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
951,067
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 14-20
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a low probability (16.5%) that Hong Kong's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will reach 31°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends indicate this is unlikely, but the market remains speculative until official observatory data is published.
If a strong high-pressure system or heat dome develops over southern China in late June 2026, Hong Kong could experience an unseasonably hot day, pushing the daily maximum to 31°C. Urban heat island effects or localized weather anomalies could also contribute to a higher-than-expected temperature.
June is typically warm but not extreme in Hong Kong, with historical averages around 29-30°C. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon activity, or cooler-than-normal conditions would likely cap the daily maximum below 31°C. Climate trends also show gradual warming, but not necessarily a 31°C spike on a single day.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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