Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate change-induced warming trends
AI updated 7/1/2026, 4:15:32 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
19%
ORYN Consensus
19%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,275,229
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 16-22
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low probability (18.55%) that Hong Kong will record a daily maximum temperature of 35°C or higher on July 3, 2026, based on historical climatological patterns and current meteorological trends.
A bullish outcome could occur if an unusually strong subtropical ridge or heat dome develops over southern China in early July 2026, driven by prolonged high-pressure systems and reduced cloud cover. Unseasonably warm air masses from the interior of the continent or prolonged easterly winds could also push temperatures above 35°C.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Hong Kong's historical climate data, where temperatures of 35°C or higher are rare in early July due to maritime influence and frequent cloud cover. Persistent monsoon activity or tropical cyclone proximity could suppress temperatures below the threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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