Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate change-induced temperature anomalies not fully captured in historical data
AI updated 6/30/2026, 4:16:00 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 44% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,803,458
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low probability (1.5%) that Hong Kong's highest temperature on July 2, 2026, will reach 28°C. Historical July data suggests this is unlikely, as peak temperatures typically fall below this threshold.
A bullish scenario could materialize if an unusual heatwave or prolonged high-pressure system persists over southern China, pushing temperatures above 27.5°C. Climate trends indicate increasing extreme heat events, which could marginally raise the likelihood.
The bear case is supported by historical averages; Hong Kong's July daily maximum temperatures rarely exceed 27°C. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon activity, or localized cooling effects from marine air could suppress temperatures further.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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