Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Uncertainty in long-range weather forecasting for 2026
Calibrated 100% · raw 115% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:15:57 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.1
Opportunity
1.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,469,708
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 115.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Hong Kong's highest temperature on July 1, 2026, shows a low probability (1.5%) of reaching 29°C, indicating skepticism about extreme heat on that date. Historical trends and seasonal patterns suggest lower likelihood of such high temperatures in early July.
A bullish scenario could emerge if unseasonable weather patterns, such as a strong high-pressure system or heat dome, develop over southern China in early July 2026. Climate trends showing increasing temperatures in the region could also marginally support higher probabilities.
The bear case centers on Hong Kong's typical early July weather, which historically averages around 31-33°C for daily maxima but rarely hits exactly 29°C. Seasonal variability and potential monsoon influences could suppress peak temperatures below this threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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