Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions by the Hong Kong Observatory after initial publication
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:31:46 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.7
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,469,708
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 70.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Hong Kong's highest temperature reaching 28°C on July 1, 2026, is extremely low at 0.30%, indicating minimal market confidence in this outcome. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest temperatures are typically lower in early July, with averages closer to 31-33°C.
A rare heatwave or unusual weather pattern could push temperatures to 28°C, though this is historically uncommon for the date. Persistent high-pressure systems or tropical cyclone-induced high humidity could contribute to elevated temperatures.
Hong Kong's early July climate rarely sees temperatures as low as 28°C; the average daily high is typically above 30°C. Weather anomalies favoring cooler temperatures, such as monsoon surges or cloud cover, would further reduce the likelihood of this outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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