Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential data revisions altering final recorded temperature
AI updated 7/1/2026, 5:30:41 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,274,844
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 15.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Helsinki's highest temperature on July 3, 2026, is highly unlikely to reach 13°C based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. The probability of this event is extremely low, with the market reflecting minimal confidence in such an outcome.
A bullish scenario could involve an unusual heatwave or atmospheric anomaly pushing temperatures to 13°C, which is near the upper range of Helsinki's July extremes. Such an event would require sustained high-pressure systems and southerly winds, though historical precedents are rare.
The bearish case is overwhelmingly supported by historical data, as Helsinki's average July high is around 21°C, and extreme highs above 30°C are infrequent. Even a high of 13°C would be unusually low for the date, with typical daily highs ranging between 18-23°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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