Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to historical temperature data by Wunderground after resolution
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:30:45 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+0.3
Opportunity
0.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 25.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
3
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a low probability (1.9%) that Helsinki will reach or exceed 29°C on July 1, 2026, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. This aligns with the typical summer temperature range for the region, which rarely exceeds 28°C in early July.
A heatwave in late June or early July could push temperatures above 29°C, as seen in recent years (e.g., 2018, 2022). Strong high-pressure systems or Föhn winds from the south could contribute to extreme warmth. Climate change may also increase the likelihood of such events.
Historical data shows July 1 temperatures in Helsinki rarely exceed 28°C, with most daily highs between 20-25°C. Persistent cloud cover, rain, or cooler air masses from the Baltic Sea could suppress temperatures below 29°C. The market's low probability reflects this historical norm.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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