Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to historical temperature data post-resolution cutoff
AI updated 6/29/2026, 7:30:26 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
17%
ORYN Consensus
17%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,469,098
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 14-20
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 16.5% probability that Guangzhou's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach 35°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends for the region during late June. The resolution hinges on precise meteorological records from Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station.
A bullish outcome could emerge if a strong subtropical high-pressure system or a heat dome persists over South China, leading to prolonged high temperatures. Unusual atmospheric blocking patterns or delayed monsoon activity could also elevate daily peak temperatures beyond typical June averages.
A bearish outcome is plausible if monsoon flows intensify earlier than usual, bringing increased cloud cover and rainfall that suppress daytime highs. Alternatively, cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the South China Sea or an unexpected cold front could prevent temperatures from reaching 35°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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