Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after market resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 9340% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 4:31:21 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
94%
Signal Score
+93.4
Opportunity
85.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,803,036
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 9340.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
13 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts Guangzhou's highest temperature on July 2, 2026, will exceed 28°C with low probability (0.55%). Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest a high likelihood of temperatures above this threshold.
Guangzhou's subtropical climate in July typically sees daily highs of 31-33°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C. A 28°C or below outcome would require unusual weather patterns, such as persistent cloud cover or atypical monsoon activity.
A temperature of 28°C or below could occur due to atypical weather events like a strong cold front, extreme rainfall suppressing daytime heating, or a rare polar air intrusion. However, such scenarios are statistically unlikely for Guangzhou in early July.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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