Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Uncertainty in long-range weather forecasting for June 2026
Calibrated 100% · raw 250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 7:15:50 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
33%
ORYN Consensus
35%
Signal Score
+2.5
Opportunity
1.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,468,983
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 250.0¢
Entry: 30-36
—
Resolution
1h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a 32.5% probability that Denver's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will fall within the 88-89°F range. This suggests a relatively low but non-negligible chance of moderate heat for the date.
A warmer-than-average June could push temperatures into the 88-89°F range, especially if high-pressure systems or heatwaves dominate the region. Late-season heatwaves in Colorado are not unprecedented, and climate trends show increasing summer temperatures.
Cooler-than-average conditions, cloud cover, or precipitation could suppress temperatures below 88°F. Historical June 29 data for Denver often falls below this range, and early-season monsoon activity could further reduce peak temperatures.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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