Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential revisions to historical temperature data post-resolution
AI updated 6/28/2026, 4:46:32 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
14%
ORYN Consensus
13%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
962,552
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 11-16
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
6 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 12.5% chance that Denver's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will fall within the 86-87°F range, based on historical climatological patterns and current forecasting models. Historical data suggests this range is relatively rare for late June in Denver.
A bullish outcome could result from an unexpected heatwave or high-pressure system over the region, leading to temperatures exceeding typical June averages. Climate change trends may also slightly increase the probability of higher temperatures.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Denver's historical climate data, which shows late June highs rarely exceeding 85°F. Cooler-than-average conditions, cloud cover, or precipitation could suppress temperatures below the target range.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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