Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: revisions to historical temperature data after market resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 285% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 12:15:45 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
11%
ORYN Consensus
8%
Signal Score
-2.9
Opportunity
2.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,092,089
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -285.0¢
Entry: 8-14
—
Resolution
21h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 10.85% probability that Dallas will record a high temperature between 94-95°F on June 29, 2026, based on historical temperature data from the Dallas Love Field Station. This low probability reflects the rarity of such a precise temperature range in local climate records.
A bullish outcome could occur if a late-season heatwave or unusual weather pattern pushes temperatures into the 94-95°F range. Unseasonably warm conditions, dry soil, or urban heat island effects in Dallas could contribute to this scenario.
A bearish outcome is more likely given historical averages; Dallas typically records highs in the low-to-mid 90s°F in late June, with only occasional spikes above 95°F. Cooler-than-average conditions, cloud cover, or rain could suppress temperatures below the target range.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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