Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: revisions_to_temperature_data_after_market_close
AI updated 6/27/2026, 3:15:33 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 1-6
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
9 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Dallas reaching 100-101°F on June 27, 2026, has a low probability of 3.95%, indicating skepticism about extreme heat on that specific date. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is unlikely but not impossible.
A bull case could emerge if a strong high-pressure system or heat dome develops over Texas in late June 2026, leading to prolonged extreme heat. Unusual atmospheric conditions or climate anomalies could push temperatures into the 100-101°F range, aligning with Dallas's typical summer heat patterns.
The bear case argues that late June in Dallas historically averages highs around 92-95°F, with 100°F+ readings being rare before early July. Cooler-than-average conditions, cloud cover, or rainfall could suppress temperatures below the 100°F threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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