Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unpredictable weather anomalies
AI updated 6/28/2026, 1:15:14 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
25%
ORYN Consensus
24%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
963,007
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 22-28
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a 23.50% probability that the highest temperature in Chengdu on June 29, 2026, will reach 29°C. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest this is unlikely, with typical highs for late June being lower.
A bullish scenario would require an unusual weather pattern, such as a strong heatwave or a prolonged period of high-pressure systems, leading to temperatures exceeding typical late-June averages in Chengdu. Unseasonal weather anomalies or regional climate shifts could contribute to this outcome.
The bearish case aligns with historical averages, where Chengdu's late June high temperatures rarely exceed 28°C. The resolution source's precision (whole degrees Celsius) further reduces the likelihood of hitting exactly 29°C. Seasonal monsoon patterns and regional climate norms support this outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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