This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data_revision_risks
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:30:38 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The probability of Cape Town's highest temperature reaching 17°C on June 29, 2026, is extremely low at 0.65%, based on historical temperature data and seasonal patterns for the region. The market is highly skewed toward temperatures outside this specific range.
A bullish outcome where the temperature hits 17°C would require an atypical weather pattern, such as an early-season heatwave or a strong offshore wind event (e.g., Bergwind) pushing temperatures above the June average of 16-17°C. Unusual atmospheric conditions or climate anomalies could marginally increase this probability.
The bearish case is overwhelmingly supported by historical data: Cape Town's June average high is ~16°C, with temperatures rarely exceeding 17°C in late June. The winter season typically sees cooler, wetter conditions, making 17°C an outlier. Climate trends also suggest slight cooling in winter months.
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Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.7% while ORYN AI estimates 0.7%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
