Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictable weather anomalies (e.g., cold fronts)
AI updated 6/29/2026, 1:15:24 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
98%
ORYN Consensus
98%
Signal Score
-0.3
Opportunity
0.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,563,507
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -25.0¢
Entry: 95-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market overwhelmingly predicts (98.25%) that Cape Town's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will be 14°C, with historical climate data strongly supporting this outcome. The resolution source (Wunderground) provides reliable, granular temperature records for the Cape Town International Airport Station.
Historical June climate data for Cape Town shows average highs around 14-16°C, with 14°C being a common peak temperature in this period. The station's precision (whole degrees Celsius) and the lack of extreme weather anomalies forecasted for the date further support the likelihood of 14°C.
Unseasonable weather patterns, such as an unexpected cold front or strong southerly winds, could suppress temperatures below 14°C. Climate variability or measurement errors at the station could also result in a lower recorded high, though historical trends mitigate this risk.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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