This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after initial publication
Calibrated 100% · raw 165% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 11:30:41 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
6%
Signal Score
+1.6
Opportunity
1.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a 6.25% probability that Cape Town's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will be exactly 17°C. Historical climatological data suggests this is a low-probability outcome due to typical winter temperature ranges in the region.
A bullish scenario could emerge if an unusual weather pattern, such as a warm northerly wind or a strong high-pressure system, pushes temperatures above the historical average. This could be influenced by broader climate anomalies like El Niño or localized atmospheric conditions.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Cape Town's winter climate, where daytime highs in late June typically range between 14°C and 18°C. Unseasonably cold conditions, strong southerly winds, or cloud cover could suppress temperatures below 17°C.
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Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 4.6% while ORYN AI estimates 6.3%.
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