Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after initial publication
Calibrated 100% · raw 165% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 11:30:41 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
6%
Signal Score
+1.6
Opportunity
1.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 165.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
7 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 6.25% probability that Cape Town's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will be exactly 17°C. Historical climatological data suggests this is a low-probability outcome due to typical winter temperature ranges in the region.
A bullish scenario could emerge if an unusual weather pattern, such as a warm northerly wind or a strong high-pressure system, pushes temperatures above the historical average. This could be influenced by broader climate anomalies like El Niño or localized atmospheric conditions.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Cape Town's winter climate, where daytime highs in late June typically range between 14°C and 18°C. Unseasonably cold conditions, strong southerly winds, or cloud cover could suppress temperatures below 17°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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