Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after market resolution
AI updated 6/29/2026, 5:31:52 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+0.8
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,468,983
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 80.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
11 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a low 2.55% probability that Cape Town's highest temperature on July 1, 2026, will reach 19°C, based on historical temperature trends and seasonal patterns. The resolution depends on precise meteorological data from Wunderground for the Cape Town International Airport Station.
A bullish scenario could materialize if an unusual weather pattern, such as a strong northerly wind or a heatwave, pushes temperatures above the historical average for early July. Unseasonal high-pressure systems or climate anomalies could also contribute to elevated temperatures.
The bearish case is supported by Cape Town's typical winter weather in early July, where temperatures rarely exceed 18°C. Persistent cold fronts, maritime influence, or cloud cover could keep the highest temperature below 19°C, aligning with historical norms.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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