Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after the market resolves
AI updated 6/28/2026, 1:45:31 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
10%
ORYN Consensus
10%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
963,296
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 6-12
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 10% probability that Buenos Aires will record a highest temperature of 13°C on June 29, 2026. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this is unlikely, as June is winter in the Southern Hemisphere and typical highs are significantly lower.
A rare warm spell or atmospheric anomaly could push temperatures to 13°C, especially if a northerly wind flow or Föhn effect occurs. Unseasonably mild conditions in late June are possible but statistically improbable.
Standard winter conditions in Buenos Aires typically yield highs of 10-12°C in June, making 13°C an outlier. Persistent cold fronts or polar air masses would likely keep temperatures below this threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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