Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution cutoff
AI updated 7/2/2026, 2:15:58 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 38% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,656,524
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Buenos Aires recording a high temperature of 13°C or higher on July 3, 2026, is low at 4.50%, reflecting historical July temperature norms for the region. This market is highly sensitive to seasonal climatological patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
A bullish outcome could result from atypical weather patterns, such as a warm air mass from northern Argentina or Brazil, or an early-season heatwave driven by El Niño conditions. Unusually high solar radiation or reduced cloud cover could also elevate temperatures beyond typical July ranges.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Buenos Aires' historical July climate, where average high temperatures range between 11-13°C. Persistent cold fronts, La Niña-driven cooler air, or increased cloud cover and precipitation would suppress temperatures below the 13°C threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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