Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: climate_data_revision
AI updated 6/30/2026, 6:15:28 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 45% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
22%
ORYN Consensus
22%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,814,255
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -50.0¢
Entry: 19-25
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a 21.50% probability that Beijing's highest temperature on July 2, 2026, will reach 32°C. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest this is a low-probability event, though climate variability introduces uncertainty.
A bullish scenario could emerge if a strong high-pressure system or heat dome develops over North China, leading to prolonged high temperatures. Anomalous weather patterns, such as a delayed monsoon or persistent southerly winds, could also push temperatures toward the upper range. Additionally, urban heat island effects in Beijing might contribute to higher recorded temperatures.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Beijing's historical July temperature averages (typically 26-30°C). Persistent cloud cover, rain, or cold air advection from northern latitudes could suppress temperatures below 32°C. Climate models also suggest a slight cooling trend in the region due to atmospheric circulation changes.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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