Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data revisions from Wunderground after market resolution
AI updated 7/1/2026, 11:30:19 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,364,460
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 10.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
6 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 0.15% probability to Beijing's highest temperature on July 1, 2026 reaching 32°C, indicating an extremely low likelihood based on historical climate data and seasonal trends for the region.
A heatwave could push temperatures to 32°C, as Beijing has seen increasing frequency of extreme heat events in recent years, particularly in early July when peak summer conditions often develop. Anomalous weather patterns, such as a strong high-pressure system or delayed monsoon rains, could further elevate temperatures beyond typical seasonal averages.
Historical data suggests Beijing's average high temperatures in early July are closer to 30-31°C, with 32°C being an outlier. Climate projections for the region indicate a trend toward slightly warmer but not extreme conditions, reducing the likelihood of hitting 32°C. Additionally, potential cooling effects from regional weather systems or cloud cover could suppress peak temperatures.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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