Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to temperature records post-resolution
AI updated 7/2/2026, 2:31:05 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 38% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,656,869
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 5.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low probability (1.10%) that Austin's highest temperature on July 3, 2026, will reach 108°F or higher. Historical climate data for Austin suggests extreme heat is possible but unlikely on a specific date.
Austin has experienced extreme heat in recent years, with temperatures exceeding 108°F in July (e.g., 2023 saw 112°F). Climate change trends may increase the likelihood of such extremes. If a heat dome persists over Texas in early July 2026, the probability could rise.
Austin's historical July temperatures rarely exceed 108°F on a single day, with averages closer to 95-100°F. Weather variability and potential cooling trends (e.g., La Niña effects) reduce the odds. Forecast models for July 2026 currently do not indicate severe heat.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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