This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climate data revisions (though unlikely to alter the outcome significantly)
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:45:39 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market suggests a very low probability (1.05%) that Ankara's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will be 25°C or below. Historical climate data and seasonal trends indicate this outcome is unlikely.
A cooler-than-average June 29 in Ankara could result from an unexpected late-season cold snap, persistent cloud cover, or unusual atmospheric patterns (e.g., a strong polar jet stream). However, such conditions are historically rare for late June in central Turkey.
June in Ankara typically features warm to hot conditions, with average highs around 28-30°C. A temperature of 25°C or below would require significant deviations from normal weather patterns, such as an unseasonable cold front or prolonged rainfall, which are statistically improbable.
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Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.1% while ORYN AI estimates 1%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
