This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data_precision_limited_to_whole_degrees
AI updated 6/27/2026, 8:45:26 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market indicates an extremely low probability (0.90%) that Amsterdam's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach or exceed 30°C, based on historical climatological trends for late June in the region.
Unusually strong high-pressure systems or late-season heatwaves could push temperatures above 30°C, as seen in rare instances like the 2019 European heatwave. Urban heat island effects or localized microclimatic variations might also contribute to breaching the threshold.
Climatologically, late June in Amsterdam averages around 21-23°C, with 30°C thresholds rarely exceeded. Persistent cloud cover, maritime influence, or global cooling trends would suppress temperatures below 30°C.
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Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.9% while ORYN AI estimates 1%.
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