Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data_revision_risks
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:30:33 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.9
Opportunity
0.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 95.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
8 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Amsterdam Schiphol Airport recording a high temperature of 35°C on June 27, 2026, is extremely low at 0.15%, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. This market is highly unlikely to resolve positively due to the rarity of such temperatures in the region.
A rare heatwave could push temperatures to 35°C, driven by an exceptional high-pressure system over Western Europe, a strong southerly wind bringing Saharan air, or a delayed monsoon pattern. Such events, while uncommon, have occurred in the Netherlands in the past (e.g., July 2019 recorded 40.7°C nationally).
Historical data shows Amsterdam's average high for late June is around 21-23°C, with 35°C only recorded a handful of times in the past century. Climate models project moderate warming, but extreme heat remains statistically improbable for this date. No immediate indicators suggest an anomalous heat event.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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