This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data_revision_risks
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:30:33 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.9
Opportunity
0.9
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The probability of Amsterdam Schiphol Airport recording a high temperature of 35°C on June 27, 2026, is extremely low at 0.15%, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. This market is highly unlikely to resolve positively due to the rarity of such temperatures in the region.
A rare heatwave could push temperatures to 35°C, driven by an exceptional high-pressure system over Western Europe, a strong southerly wind bringing Saharan air, or a delayed monsoon pattern. Such events, while uncommon, have occurred in the Netherlands in the past (e.g., July 2019 recorded 40.7°C nationally).
Historical data shows Amsterdam's average high for late June is around 21-23°C, with 35°C only recorded a handful of times in the past century. Climate models project moderate warming, but extreme heat remains statistically improbable for this date. No immediate indicators suggest an anomalous heat event.
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Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.1% while ORYN AI estimates 1%.
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