Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate change-induced temperature anomalies skewing historical baselines
Calibrated 100% · raw 1350% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 5:30:36 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
18%
Signal Score
+13.5
Opportunity
11.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,274,844
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1350.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low 20% probability that Amsterdam's highest temperature on July 3, 2026, will reach 22°C, based on historical climatological data and seasonal trends for the region. This suggests skepticism about unusually warm conditions for that date.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an early heatwave or unseasonable warm front affects the Netherlands in early July 2026, driven by a persistent high-pressure system or unusual atmospheric circulation patterns. Such anomalies have occurred in past years, though they are statistically rare for this period.
The bear case assumes typical mid-summer conditions, where Amsterdam's historical average high for early July is around 21-22°C, but with a lower probability of exactly hitting 22°C due to natural variability. Cool oceanic influences or cloud cover could suppress temperatures below this threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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