Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictability of extreme weather events in early summer
AI updated 6/29/2026, 5:00:49 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
-0.3
Opportunity
0.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,469,098
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -30.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
12 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Amsterdam Schiphol recording a highest temperature of 19°C on July 1, 2026, is currently low at 2.15%. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest this temperature is below the July average, making it an outlier scenario.
A bullish scenario could materialize if an unexpected heatwave develops in early July 2026, driven by high-pressure systems or Saharan air intrusions. Unseasonably warm conditions could push the daily maximum to 19°C, aligning with the market's resolution.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Amsterdam's maritime climate, which typically features milder summer temperatures. Persistent Atlantic weather patterns or cloud cover could suppress daily highs well below 19°C, favoring lower-resolution outcomes.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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