Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: postponement or cancellation of the event
AI updated 6/26/2026, 6:15:52 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
71%
ORYN Consensus
71%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 68-74
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
3 points
In the upcoming game, scheduled for July 1, 2026 If United States wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market currently assigns a 70.50% probability to the United States winning the game on July 1, 2026, indicating a strong but not overwhelming favorability toward the outcome. The resolution criteria are clearly defined, relying on official governing body statistics or credible reporting within a strict timeframe.
The bull case assumes the United States enters the game with a stronger squad depth, tactical advantage, or home-field benefits, leading to a dominant 90-minute performance. Historical trends, current form, and key player availability may favor the United States, justifying the 70.50% probability.
The bear case suggests the United States may face a highly competitive opponent with superior recent form, injuries to key players, or unfavorable officiating that could skew the result. External factors like weather conditions or travel fatigue might also play a role in a potential upset.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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