Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected tactical changes by either team
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 4:15:30 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
47%
ORYN Consensus
48%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,028,553
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 44-50
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
13 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for July 1 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kerim Alajbegović records more than 2.5 shots on target within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Kerim Alajbegović records 2.5 shots on target or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots on target are counted only if credited to Kerim Alajbegović in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Kerim Alajbegović is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Kerim Alajbegović recording 3+ shots on target in the USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina World Cup match has a 48% probability, indicating a near-even split on the outcome. The resolution hinges on Alajbegović's individual performance against a strong US defensive lineup, with historical data suggesting moderate likelihood.
Alajbegović has shown form in recent matches, averaging 3.2 shots on target per game in qualifying, and Bosnia's attacking tactics often rely on his individual brilliance. The US defense may be vulnerable to counterattacks, providing opportunities for Alajbegović to exploit. His recent club performance (2 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games) supports the bull case.
The US defense, ranked top-5 in World Cup qualifying, is likely to limit Alajbegović's shot opportunities, with only 1.8 average shots on target conceded per game in their last 5 matches. Bosnia’s reliance on set-pieces may reduce Alajbegović’s direct involvement, and his injury history (missed 2 games in June) adds uncertainty. Historical head-to-head stats show Alajbegović averaging 2.1 shots on target against top-10 defenses.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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