Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Player injury or tactical exclusion before/during the match
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 6:48:07 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
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|---|---|---|---|
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ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
48%
Signal Score
-2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,470,664
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for July 1 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alejandro Zendejas records 3+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Alejandro Zendejas scoring 3+ goals in the USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina World Cup match on July 1 is evenly balanced at 50%, reflecting high uncertainty due to the rarity of such an event and the player's inconsistent goal-scoring record. The market's neutrality suggests no clear consensus on the likelihood of this outcome.
Alejandro Zendejas could achieve 3+ goals if he is deployed as a central striker or attacking midfielder in a high-scoring tactical setup, leveraging his recent club form where he has shown flashes of goal-scoring ability. A defensive lapse by Bosnia and Herzegovina or a high-pressing strategy by the USA might create sufficient opportunities for Zendejas to capitalize. Historical World Cup matches occasionally feature multi-goal performances, making this outcome plausible.
Zendejas has a limited international goal-scoring record, with no prior World Cup appearances and only sporadic club-level success, making 3+ goals highly unlikely. Bosnia and Herzegovina's defensive structure is typically robust, and the USA's attacking options (e.g., Pulisic, Balogun) may overshadow his involvement. The rarity of a player scoring 3+ goals in a single World Cup match (only 15 instances in history) further diminishes the probability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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